5x1: Test Drive Your Assumptions | Wednesday, March 26th, 2025

by Monti Pace

The​ 5x1 newsletter​ is a concise and insightful resource around a simple concept: systems achieve goals.

sys·tem [ˈsistəm]
a set of things working together as parts of a mechanism or an interconnecting network.
a set of principles or procedures according to which something is done; an organized framework or method.

1 x Principle of Systemization

Experimentation shouldn’t end in 10th grade physics — it’s the secret weapon of effective systems builders. Every successful business management philosophy I’ve experienced has emphasized the importance of experimentation.

When I talk about experiments, I'm talking about structured ways to test assumptions, discover hidden patterns, and accelerate your learning cycles. Here's the thing about experiments: they're not random trial-and-error. They're deliberate, structured, and designed to teach you something specific. The architecture matters more than any individual test.

What hypothesis are you testing?

Which variables are you manipulating?

What specific metrics determine success?

How will you know when you've learned what you need to?

Simulations take this even further. They're the forward-looking counterpart to experiments, allowing you to model complex scenarios before real-world implementation. It's like having a sandbox where you can safely break things, find vulnerabilities, and discover those unexpected interactions that would otherwise blindside you at the worst possible moment.

When you integrate experimental thinking into your systems, you shift from frustration when things don’t work to curiosity. Instead of waiting for problems to emerge and then scrambling for solutions, you're proactively creating scenarios that generate actionable insights. You're not just building systems—you're building learning machines that continuously improve through intentional testing.

The most powerful systems aren't static—they're laboratories of continuous discovery. Stop trying to get everything perfect on the first try and start designing experiments that teach you exactly what you need to know.

1 x Systemization Quote

"The most important part of innovation isn’t the idea, it’s the testing of the idea. The best ideas are discovered by experimenting and pushing boundaries, not by following a prescribed plan.” - Peter Sims, author of Little Bets

1 x Reflection Question

In what ways might your fear of 'failure' be limiting your willingness to experiment? How could you redefine 'failure' in the context of an experiment to view it as a learning opportunity, rather than an end result?

1 x Personal System Idea

The "Test Drive" System: Experimenting Before Buying a Car

Buying a car is a significant investment, and assumptions can cloud our judgment. By experimenting with renting or borrowing cars before committing, you can test features, performance, and comfort in real-world conditions. This method allows you to refine your criteria and make an informed choice, adjusting as you go.

Step 1: Define Your Core Needs. Before starting, clearly define your core needs, wants, and flexible options in a car. What features are essential, what’s negotiable, and what’s a bonus?

Step 2: Choose Initial Candidates. Create an initial shortlist with a variety of options—some that closely fit your ideal, and others that challenge your assumptions.

Step 3: Rent or Borrow the First Car. Rent or borrow your first car for a few days. Test your assumptions by asking:

• What surprises you?
• What features do you need that you hadn’t considered?
• What did you think you needed but don’t? Take detailed notes and reflect on the experience.

Step 4: Reevaluate Your Assumptions After your first test, reassess:

• Which features are essential and which aren’t?
• What do you wish the car had that you didn’t consider? Refine your list of priorities and adjust your criteria for the next car rental based on what you’ve learned.

Step 5: Rent or Borrow the Next Car(s) Use what you’ve learned to adjust your next rental:

• Test refined priorities based on your experience.
• Continue experimenting with new assumptions and eliminate cars that no longer fit. By the time you reach your third or fourth test, you’ll have a much clearer idea of what works for you.

Step 6: Final Decision After testing, evaluate your findings:

• Which car truly fits your needs based on real-world tests?
• Does your final choice align with your refined criteria? You’ve now gathered enough data to make a confident purchase, backed by practical experience.

This test and learn approach lets you refine your decision with each step, ensuring your final choice is based on what you actually need—not just assumptions.

1 x Business System Idea

Using Contractors to Test a Role

Making a hire is a big decision for any business. Once you bring someone on board, it's hard to undo the decision. A great tactic for testing the waters before committing to a full-time hire is experimenting with part-time work or contractors. This approach allows you to test the role and evaluate the fit without the long-term commitment. As always, my approach is to implement the simplest system that will achieve your goal without overcomplicating things.

Step 1: Define the Core Problem. Before hiring, clearly define the problem you're trying to solve. Why do you need extra help? For example, if you're thinking about hiring a marketer, the problem might be: "I need someone to help grow my online presence but am not sure if I need a full-time employee."

Step 2: Identify Assumptions. Write down your key assumptions about the role. What do you think a contractor could bring to the table? Maybe you assume they’ll be more cost-effective or can work independently without much oversight. Identify these assumptions and be ready to test them.

Step 3: Test with a Short, Specific Project. Hire a contractor for a small, focused task that directly addresses your core problem. For example, instead of hiring a contractor to "do marketing," ask them to run a social media ad campaign for a month. This lets you test their skills and the role without a major commitment.

Step 4: Evaluate the Results. At the end of the project, take a step back and assess whether the work met your expectations. Did the contractor solve the problem? Did the role feel like a good fit? What did you learn about the type of help you actually need?

Step 5: Decide the Next Step. Based on the results, decide if you want to keep working with the contractor, extend their role, or reframe the role entirely. The experiment could have highlighted that the role you thought you needed actually isn’t the right one to solve your current need. Use the insights from this experiment to redefine the role or adjust your hiring strategy, if needed.

This experiment-driven approach ensures you’re making informed choices based on real-world results, rather than assumptions. By starting small, you mitigate risk and learn exactly what your business needs before committing to a full-time hire.