5x1: Why Your First Step Determines Your Final Destination | Wednesday, March 19th, 2025

by Monti Pace

The​ 5x1 newsletter​ is a concise and insightful resource around a simple concept: systems achieve goals.

sys·tem [ˈsistəm]
a set of things working together as parts of a mechanism or an interconnecting network.
a set of principles or procedures according to which something is done; an organized framework or method.

1 x Principle of Systemization

Path Dependency is a phenomenon where today's choices dramatically narrow tomorrow's options. Every decision you make doesn't just impact your present—it puts you on specific pathways while closing off others.

Your systems – from personal habits to business processes – get increasingly locked into patterns established by initial decisions, even when better alternatives emerge later. Those first steps often determine the entire journey. It's why parents push for Ivy League schools or how an early-career job creates unexpected career trajectories.

What's fascinating about path dependency is how small initial advantages snowball through self-reinforcing feedback loops. Something gets a slight edge, attracts more resources, strengthens its position, and suddenly alternatives can't compete regardless of merit.

For system designers, this principle is both warning and opportunity. Make early decisions carefully, knowing they'll shape future possibilities in ways increasingly difficult to change. It also reveals strategic points where new paths can establish different trajectories. This is where sunk costs matter—we often let path dependency keep us going in one direction because we don't want to have "wasted" resources, even when abandoning that path for a new one is better long-term.

The key to working with path dependency is awareness. By recognizing where our systems have become rigidly path-dependent and where flexibility remains, we can design better interventions.

How to work with path dependency:

Audit the paths you’ve taken to identify where you're locked into suboptimal patterns

• Create intentional disruptions to test if current paths still serve your goals
• Experiment: conduct thought exercises to explore alternate paths; design smaller, reversible decisions when entering unfamiliar territory
• Look for leverage points where small interventions can create new path options
• Consider the second and third-order effects of initial choices
• Maintain diverse options longer before committing to a single path

1 x Systemization Quote

"Each time we make a choice, we become more invested in that choice. It becomes harder to change paths, not because alternatives don't exist, but because we stop seeing them as viable." – Annie Duke (Author of Thinking in Bets)

1 x Reflection Question

If a competitor or new market entrant had to design your business model from scratch today, what would they do differently? What does that tell you about your own constraints?

1 x Personal System Idea

Personal Project Road-Mapping: Creating project plans isn't novel, but we rarely apply this approach to our personal lives. Whether working with a partner, children, or solo, mapping key personal initiatives helps identify pivotal decisions that set you on specific paths.

We often make quick decisions without considering future impacts that might have changed our choices.

Take tool purchases as an example: choosing between DeWalt, Bosch, or Milwaukee for your first drill seems minor for a new homeowner just building their collection. But what you might overlook is the battery ecosystem. Batteries represent the most expensive component of these tools, and future purchases will ideally use the same battery system. Without forethought, you might end up with a DeWalt drill and a Milwaukee circular saw, missing the opportunity to save money by standardizing on one battery platform.

Taking a few extra minutes early in your decision process (perfect time to consult AI assistants like Claude or ChatGPT) to explore potential downstream effects could save significant time, money, and frustration later. This forward-thinking approach is the essence of personal project planning: mapping dependencies and connections between decisions before they create problems.

1 x Business System Idea

The Reversible vs. Irreversible Decision Mental Model: Famously used by Jeff Bezos at Amazon, the Reversible vs. Irreversible decision-making model is a simple but underused system for avoiding bad path dependency.

The premise: Not all decisions should be treated equally. Some choices can be undone with little consequence, while others lock you into a long-term trajectory. The mistake? Treating both the same.

Many people overanalyze reversible decisions—wasting time on choices that could easily be adjusted later—while blindly committing to irreversible decisions without considering the long-term impact. The key is recognizing the difference before you act.

The System -

Reversible: If it doesn’t work, you can undo it with minimal cost. → Decide quickly and move forward. If you’re 70-80% sure, decide now. Adjust as needed.

Irreversible: If it fails, reversing course is expensive, time-consuming, or reputationally damaging. → Pause, stress-test your thinking, and look for a way to test before committing. Slow down, get input, and ask: What’s the smallest way I can test this before going all-in? This system keeps momentum high while preventing you from getting locked into a bad path.